They are betting that, with Federal Reserve Board interest rate cuts, the economy will pick up in the second half of the year and that the stock market will at least stabilize.
Legg Mason Inc., a Baltimore-based brokerage and asset management company. "I am not buoyant, but I think things will be a little easier" this year.
Mason welcomes any and all interest rate cuts by the Fed and is hoping that the government will, indeed, trim taxes under the George W. Bush administration. He also believes that the collapse of many new economy stocks could be nearing an end. "Hopefully, it will stabilize," he said. "My overall guess is the market ... will be better" than it was in 2000.
Others are hopeful, too.
George A. Roche, chairman and president of T. Rowe Price Associates Inc., a Baltimore-based mutual fund company, sees a "challenging year."
"I expect a dramatic slowdown in profit and growth for the overall economy," Roche said. But, he said, there could be a slow start in the first half of the year and then easings by the central bank could help things "get better in the second half."
Money managers and brokers have lived in a near utopian state since 1995 as investors poured money into stocks and the economy steamed ahead.
The closely watched Dow Jones industrial average, which tracks 30 large and important companies, more than tripled from 3,838.48 on Jan. 3, 1995, to a high of 11,722.86 on Jan. 15, last year. And the Nasdaq surged nearly seven-fold from 743.58 on Jan. 3, 1995, to a high of 5,048.62 on March 10, last year.
But the Dow stumbled and the Nasdaq collapsed last year as scores of Internet start-ups went bankrupt or simply closed their doors. Stocks of some of the best known companies - Microsoft Corp., Dell Computer Corp. and AT&T Corp. - plunged as the economy slowed.
Some blamed the abrupt change on six interest rate increases by the Fed that began in June 1999, designed to slow a then-racing economy. Others pointed to the long deadlock in the 2000 presidential election.
"The market hates two things - uncertainty and high or rising interest rates,"
said Thomas Schweizer Jr., head of the private client division at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown in Baltimore. Brokers had a fine 2000. Average daily volume on the New York Stock Exchange rose to a record 1 billion shares, up 28.7 percent from 1999, while average volume on the Nasdaq stock market soared 61.2 percent to a record 1.7 billion shares. Such volume swells commission revenue.
Schweizer, who oversees 415 brokers, said the Alex. Brown brokerage operation had its best year ever, although business fell off as 2000 came to a close. Private client accounts shot up to $100 billion from $79 billion a year earlier, and the group hired 45 brokers.
"We had a terrific year," he said.
In fact, the industry is on track to post record profits when it reports final numbers early this year, said Michael Flanagan, a brokerage analyst at Philadelphia-based Financial Service Analytics.
He expects the 273 firms that are members of the New York Stock Exchange to post earnings of $20 billion for 2000, up from $16.3 billion a year earlier.
But it won't be so easy to make money this year, he said.
"For the first time in seven or eight years, I feel more comfortable in suggesting the possibility of a downturn in the brokerage business," Flanagan said. "There are a lot of storm clouds on the horizon."