Coming out of the bye week at 2-6, Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees went through an exercise he believed would both explain his unit's first half of the season and predict its play in the second half.
He examined the big plays the defense had allowed and found that if the Ravens hadn't allowed six of them over their first eight games — many crucial scores that cost them dearly in one-score games, granted — they would have had the NFL's seventh-ranked defense instead of the 24th.
He said it wasn't "rocket science," that simply cutting back on those plays could make his maligned defense right again. He was correct.
Since Week 10, the Ravens have the league's best pass defense and the fourth-best total defense, and have mended a unit through what coach John Harbaugh and Pees called minor tweaks to a point that many believe they have a solid foundation to build on for 2016.
"You guys can see the difference in the stats, from [24th] to 10th," Pees said. "I told you back then, we weren't that bad. We just gave up big plays and statistically, it looked terrible. Now, we're not."
"It's huge for us," cornerback Jimmy Smith said. "Obviously, we're going to build off of that, and at the same time, we know what we're capable of. Going forward and next year, we know that at least this is the beginning of what we're going to try to do next year."
At the bye, the Ravens defense was lagging far behind expectations for a veteran group that was only missing outside linebacker Terrell Suggs through injury. They ranked 29th in pass defense (283.9 yards per game), 24th in total defense (383.6 yards per game), 25th in points allowed per game (26.8) and last in third-down defense (47.9 percent).
Since Week 10, however, the Ravens rank first in pass defense (188.4 yards per game), fourth in total defense (291 yards per game) and seventh in third-down defense (33.7 percent).
Those jumps haven't gone unnoticed among those who will be returning in 2016.
"We let a lot of big plays happen early in the season, some technique and just effort and hustling and things like that," Smith said. "I feel like those are the things that we cleaned up after the bye week, and that's showing up in our play now."
The big plays truly have been the difference. The defense allowed just over four pass plays of 20 yards or longer per game in the first half of the season — third most in the NFL in that span — and cut that in half over the second half.
Harbaugh equated the pass defense to the cockpit of a plane, saying they had "some things that were built into our system that we had to re-evaluate and look at and make more operational.
"Sometimes the plane is a little unwieldy, and there are a lot of knobs and controls and things that have to be executed," Harbaugh said. "We created a little more autopilot into the system a little bit — if that's an analogy — and allowed our guys to play faster. We actually asked them and demanded that they play faster and harder, and they played with far more discipline with technique and with assignment."
"We've done a couple things, coverage-wise, within a coverage that is already in, not a new coverage," Pees said. "Maybe [there was] something in the way we were playing an old coverage that maybe we had guys who couldn't do it that way, so we may have tweaked it a little bit."
Those adjustments in scheme were met by a renewed focus among the members of a mostly veteran defense that grew fed up with being the scapegoat for the Ravens' swooning start.
"Guys have just made up their minds and said, 'Enough is enough,'" defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan said. "Guys are playing with an attitude and just getting back to playing Ravens' football that we're known for."
"As a defense, I believe we are playing great collectively as a unit," safety Kendrick Lewis said. "We're all on the same page and everybody is getting to the ball. That's the main focus and that's the main reason we've had this change in how we play the game."
For some, the damage is already done. Elvis Dumervil said he won't traffic in moral victories, but "will say we're headed in the right direction." Harbaugh, too, noted the "glitches" they had in coverage against the Seattle Seahawks, when quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 292 yards and five touchdowns.
The pass defense is just one aspect of the whole defense, with some areas needing improvement and some already sound. The rushing defense has hovered around the top 10 in the league all year, anchored by nose tackle Brandon Williams. But without Suggs, they're tied for 18th in the NFL with 34 sacks. They have a league-low six interceptions, with their 14 total takeaways third-fewest in the NFL.
But perhaps the most heartening effort of the season came when they held a red-hot Steelers offense led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to 215 passing yards, and Pro Bowl receiver Antonio Brown to seven catches for 61 yards. They also had two interceptions, all providing a glimmer of hope for the season finale against the Cincinnati Bengals and beyond.
"We're not proud, but we're excited for where we're heading and seeing the glimpse of that against a good team — against a great offense — in Pittsburgh," Dumervil said. "It's something where you're excited about going into the offseason, and we're trying to finish that with Cincy."
Harbaugh, who after the team was eliminated from playoff contention stressed that the end of 2015 was the jumping-off point for next year's Ravens, sees Sunday as a test against a Bengals offense that gained 458 yards when they met in Week 3.
"I think the jury is still out for Sunday, because we're playing a very explosive offense," Harbaugh said. "But we expect to play at the highest level. Statistically, we've been one of the best defenses in football for the last nine games, so we expect that this week."
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Building a foundation?
The Ravens' defense was a main contributor to the team's 2-6 start, with big plays costing them several of the close games they ended up losing before the Week 9 bye gave them a chance to reset. Since then, the Ravens have had one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving hope that the unit might fully turn around in 2016. All totals in per-game averages.
Category; First half (NFL ranking); Second half (ranking); overall (ranking)
Pass defense; 283.9 yards (29th); 188.4 yards (1st); 239 (T-17th)
Run defense; 99.8 yards (10th); 102.6 yards (12th); 101.1 yards (11th)
Total defense; 383.6 yards (24th); 291 yards (4th); 340.1 yards (10th)
Scoring defense; 26.8 points (25th); 23 points (21st); 25.1 points (22nd)