Over/under predictions on the Orioles' 2013 statistics
My copy of the 2013 Baseball Prospectus preseason guide arrived in the mail yesterday. It's more than 570 pages, so let's just say you're not going to get a full book report quite yet.
But one of the most interesting components of the annual baseball bible is its PECOTA projections for each player's statistics in the coming season.
I wanted to share a few of the interesting projections concerning the Orioles, then thought it might make for a fun little game of over/under.
So, here are some of the notable projections for five Orioles in 2013. Take a look a the key numbers and then vote for whether you think that player will do better or worse than predicted.
-- David Selig
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In his first year as a full-time closer, Johnson led the American League with 51 saves.
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA predicts a major decline for the right-hander in 2013. BP has Johnson saving just 18 games, and they see his ERA rising (from 2.49 to 3.66) as well as his WHIP (from 1.02 to 1.26).
The reasoning is Johnson's relatively low strikeout rate of 5.4 per nine innings.
"Since the save became an official statistic in 1969, only four pitchers have had 40 saves while posting a lower strikeout rate than Johnson's," Baseball Prospectus writes. " ... Saying Johnson is not a prototypical closer would be like saying a hammer is not a prototypical power tool -- it'll get the job done; it just won't be as flashy."
So, what do you think ... (click through to vote)