A wild of night of baseball has the AL wild-card chase even tighter than it was 24 hours ago.

But how much have the Orioles' playoff chances actually improved?

We've periodically taken a look at the projections from coolstandings.com, which uses a number of factors to determine each team's odds of reaching the postseason.

Heading into today's action, the Orioles have a 16.7 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is only a slight upgrade from the 10.3 percent odds they had yesterday, according to the website.

That's a pretty low number for a team just one game out, but it speaks to how crowded the race is and also the remaining strength of schedule of the condending teams.

The Indians, just a half game better than the Orioles in the standings, have better than a coin flip's odds (55.3 percent) of playing into October.

The Orioles' upcoming four-game series in Tampa won't be easy, but strength of schedule can be misleading at this time of year. By the time the Orioles welcome the Red Sox to Camden Yards for the season's final weekend, Boston will have locked up the division title (we presume).

The Red Sox will want to set up their pitching for the playoffs and won't want to overwork their bullpen, so all of a sudden those game become easier -- on paper at least -- than facing a 90-plus-win team would lead you to believe.

 

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david.selig@baltsun.com

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