O's message unclear in re-signing of Trembley

Andy MacPhail might have struck a blow for organizational stability Friday when he chose not to change managers in the middle of his rebuilding program, but the message he sent to the fans by picking up Dave Trembley's contract option remains a bit unclear.

MacPhail cast the one-year rollover as a reward for a job well done, even though the Orioles are about to complete one of the worst seasons - in terms of wins and losses - in the history of the franchise. He has given his manager another opportunity to grow along with his young team, despite the time it took Trembley to get everyone pulling in the same direction in the first half of the season and the meltdown he could do little about at the end.

So, now that we know who will be the manager next season, it would be nice to know what that means.

Maybe the Orioles finally figured out that changing managers every couple of years is just as likely to initiate another cycle of defeat as it is to change the culture of the team for the better. The most successful clubs tend to have stable field and front office management, though that is just as likely to be the result of their success as the reason for it.

The decision to retain Trembley is going to be viewed by a lot of fans, however, as an indication that the progress of the rebuilding program has slowed to the point where the Orioles need a caretaker manager for at least one more unproductive season.

That's fair to wonder, especially after the moves that MacPhail made at midseason. The deal that sent closer George Sherrill to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Double-A third baseman Josh Bell left the Orioles' bullpen in disarray and netted a power-hitting corner infield prospect who probably won't be ready to play in the major leagues next season. The Aubrey Huff deal didn't do much for the near-term outlook either.

MacPhail didn't do anything to dispel the notion that he was building for 2011 or beyond when he explained after the Sherrill deal that it represented some more "short-term pain," leaving us to figure out whether he was talking about the final months of this season or looking toward some more hard times in 2010.

It certainly doesn't look now as if there's going to be a major upturn in the club's performance next year. There have been teams that have made dramatic turnarounds over a single offseason, most recently the Detroit Tigers in 2006 and the Tampa Bay Rays last year, but the O's will have to improve by 20 games year over year just to make a run at a .500 record.

The only way that happens is if MacPhail knows something that we don't - if he has some big moves up his sleeve this winter that are going to cause a dynamic change in the quality of the lineup and the pitching staff.

We've been over this territory before. The Orioles need a marquee hitter at the heart of the lineup, preferably one who also fills a corner infield position, and some outside help to shore up both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The second part of that equation doesn't necessarily mesh with MacPhail's "grow the arms, buy the bats" philosophy, which is why it is logical to surmise that the short-term pain might extend through next year.

Guess that comes down to your definition of short-term.

Give MacPhail credit for sticking to his guns. He didn't blink as the Orioles tumbled into the abyss in September. He didn't go all wobbly in the face of mounting public pressure to replace Trembley at a time when a lot of general managers would have gone for the window dressing to cover their own behinds.

The road back to respectability never figured to be a short one, but the trip has been so difficult that the thought of another hopeless season in 2010 might be too much to bear for the club's beleaguered fans.

With the rehiring of Trembley, MacPhail is trying to tell them something.

Now, we just have to figure out what it is.

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