Confidence ran high in the Kentucky Derby champion.
Bred for stamina by one of America's grand old racing families and fine-tuned by one of the sport's most respected trainers, Orb went off as a commanding 3-5 favorite in the 2013 Preakness.
Two minutes later, he was another unsuccessful Triple Crown aspirant, having failed to fight his way out of traffic after starting from the No. 1 post. He would never win another race.
Turns of fortune are swift and unpredictable in thoroughbred racing, even for the champions who appear least vulnerable. That unpredictability will be a major theme Saturday as California Chrome lines up for his shot at the Preakness.
If anything, he might go off as an even stronger favorite than Orb. California Chrome hasn't lost this year and has demonstrated the kind of versatile speed needed to deal with shifting race dynamics. He's by far the most accomplished entrant in a 10-horse field analysts describe as significantly weaker than the Kentucky Derby field of two weeks ago.
And yet so many things could go wrong — an unsteady start, early traffic, a minor injury, a blinding run by a lightly tested competitor such as Social Inclusion.
“I think California Chrome will have to be off his game to lose,” said trainer Graham Motion, who brought Animal Kingdom to Pimlico as the Derby champion in 2011. “But all you think about those two weeks are the things that can go wrong. You're holding your breath.”
Motion will saddle Ring Weekend against California Chrome, in part based on his understanding that even the greatest champions can falter on any given Saturday.
Art Sherman knows this all too well. The 77-year-old trainer has seen his share of cruel twists in six decades around racing, and he knows his horse became everyone's target the moment he crossed the finish line at Churchill Downs.
He worries about everything from California Chrome catching a cold to the rainy forecast ahead of Saturday's race to a two-week turnaround that he concedes is too quick for his taste.
“You go into these races thinking your horse is really going to perform good, but racing luck means so much,” Sherman said. “I don't feel really anything until he gets in the gate. That's my biggest concern, is the first 70 yards leaving there. I think it's so important to any racehorse to get away from the gate without getting knocked down or impeded in any way, getting behind horses where you have no place to go. We've seen the best horse get beat many a time with bad racing luck. So all I do is hope he has a good trip.”
Those taking a second shot at California Chrome seem to hope the racing fates will turn from his favor to theirs.
“California Chrome is an awful nice horse,” said Billy Gowan, who will saddle Ride On Curlin in the Preakness after a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. “But I'd like to get a good, clean trip and see what my horse is made out of.”
Asked whether sees any vulnerability in the favorite, General a Rod trainer Mike Maker said: “No, I don't … other than anything can happen in horse racing.”
That truism has been evident throughout this 3-year-old season, as California Chrome's top rivals have fallen victim to sudden injuries (Hoppertunity, Constitution, Cairo Prince), unlucky starting positions (Wicked Strong) and other twists of fate. Only the Derby champion has avoided all the pitfalls.
That's to his credit, said NBC racing analyst Randy Moss.
“He tends to make his own luck,” Moss said. “He's such a naturally fast horse and so manageable that [jockey Victor] Espinoza can use his speed early to get good position and then put him wherever he wants.”
That versatility sets him apart from Orb, said Moss' colleague, Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey.
“Orb was a dead closer,” Bailey said. “Dead closers are subject to the amount of speed in the race and traffic he has to get through. He needs pace, and he has to get lucky navigating through traffic. A horse like Chrome is a speed horse that will rate. … At any point in time, he can take control of the race, and that's always dangerous.”
California Chrome faced major doubts going into the Kentucky Derby, with rival horsemen questioning his modest pedigree, his ability to run outside California and Sherman's inexperience on American racing's biggest stage. Even after his decisive victory, some skeptics remain because his winning time of 2 minutes, 3.66 seconds was the slowest since 1974 on a Derby track with “fast” conditions.