Preakness 2017:

How to bet the big race

For The Baltimore Sun

The winner of the Kentucky Derby is always a strong choice to win the Preakness because the race conditions are similar. The Derby winner is an even stronger choice in the Preakness when he was the favorite in the Derby. Such is the case with Always Dreaming.

Although many Derby contenders may grumble about the rough trip they got, there is nothing pointing to Always Dreaming taking a step back today. He remains the horse to beat. 

However, things do change from Derby to Preakness, and the dream ride that Always Dreaming enjoyed will be more difficult to find today.  Having seen the playbook for Always Dreaming, his Derby competitors will try to prevent it working twice.

Expect more pressure on the lead, specifically from Conquest Mo Money, and possibly from Classic Empire, who was shuffled too far back in the Derby to be a part of the lead pack.

The added pace pressure should set up things nicely for horses coming from farther back. Specifically Gunnevera and Lookin At Lee will get their shots. Gunnevera had arguably the worst trip in the Derby, but still finished well. All the stretch running horses will enjoy the smaller field, and possibly a dry track, to help their causes.

Best bet to win:  Always Dreaming

Best value to win:  Lookin At Lee

Live longshot:  Gunnevera

Liam Durbin is owner-handicapper of e-ponies.com and creator of the One Click Pony app. He shares his Triple Crown picks and betting tips with The Baltimore Sun each year.

Copyright © 2017, The Baltimore Sun, a Baltimore Sun Media Group publication | Place an Ad
19°