Gabby Gaudet's analysis and betting tips for Saturday's race card at Pimlico Race Course:
Race 1, 1:10 p.m. post time
Selections: No. 8 Class Terms, No. 4 Perigee Moon Slide, No. 3 Reilly S
Class Terms shortens up today after being a bit keen, pulling inside going longer last out. I like the cutback and think she’ll be better as a closing sprinter. Pedigree Moon Slide could get off the duck today but she does keep finding reasons not to win. Even though she’s faced similar in the past, this field came up pretty light. Reilly S is by hot sire Great Notion and out of a mare who was a two-time winner springing on the turf (allowance-type).
Race 2, 1:38 p.m.
Selections: No. 4 Preciate It, No. 5 Weekend Oasis, No. 2 Northern Alliance
Preciate It is well posted for her debut and looks to be fit with some consistent half-mile drills. There’s nothing really notable on the bottom half of her pedigree, but Bullsbay foals have proven to be precocious. Weekend Oasis enters with a bullet workout and the barn has been doing well with their 2-year-olds so far this meet. The mare was a seven-time winner going long on the dirt. Northern Alliance is out of a mare that won on turf, synthetic and an off track. Like the versatility in the bloodlines but must show speed from inside post.
Race 3, 2:06 p.m.
Selections: No. 10 Heavenly Perfect, No. 9 Countess Emma, No. 1 To Commercial
Heavenly Perfect caught a much tougher field last out than what she does today. I hope she can sit closer today than in last because I don’t think she’s much a closer. Countess Emma is the proven turf sprinter but she’s coming off a nine-month layoff and her wins tend to be sporadically placed. To Commercial’s most recent turf race is excusable. It was an extremely boggy course and speed was’t holding. Focus in on her other turf race at Penn National - that could earn her a spot in the top three.
Race 3, 2:34 p.m.
Selections: No. 2 Mountain Hero, No 1. Uno Emayo, No. 4 Citation Star
Mountain Hero didn’t look like he liked one bit of the conditions of the main track last out. He has back class that could resurface today and his maiden win proved credible as the second place finisher came back to win on Thursday. It’ll be tricky for Uno Emayo to work out a trip from rail given his running style but he does fit with this level. Citation Star took a long time to break his maiden but he could use his speed to his advantage and dictate here.
Race 5, 3:02 p.m.
Selections: No. 5. Key d’Oro, No. 9. Southern Equity, No. 6. Spring Mountain Mist
Key d’Oro will get the pace she needs in front of her today and her last turf races proved quite productive as the second place finisher came back to not only win her next race on the dirt but also finished a game second recently against similar company. Southern Equity is probably best at this distance versus sprinting but needs the pace to come back to her for best results. Spring Mountain Mist is most effective when making the lead but will she take pressure from Doug’s Tori to her outside?
Race 6, 3:30 p.m.
Selections: No. 6 Class and Cash, No. 7 Enough is Enough, No. 1 Enjoy the Show
Although I’m a little bit suspect of the number that Class and Cash received for her win last time out, I do think she’ll continue to get better with distance. She finally got to two-turns on the turf last out and today could be the lone speed. Enough Is Enough had to check, steady and lose her position on the backstretch last out behind a gate to wire winner. Room to improve today with blinkers on. Enjoy the Show was one of the few that actually closed into a sharp gate to wire winner on a day when speed was good. Respect.
Race 7, 3:58 p.m.
Selections: No. 3 Big House, No. 5. Ghost Bay, No. 4 Resurgence
Cat Fifty-five got the jump on Big House last out immediately exiting the gate. He, however, held well from the awkward chasing position. Today he looks like the fast early and could be the one to catch. Ghost Bay looks like a horse that hasn’t quite figured out where he’s best. He’s capable of strong efforts but also capable of bad ones. If he takes a step forward off his last race, he’ll be right there. I question the maiden field that Resurgence beat in January as only one horse came out of it to win on the drop, but at the same time he isn’t facing any monsters in here either.
Race 8, 4:26 p.m.
Selections: No. 8 Ramblin N Gamblin, No. 10 Do What I Say, No. 4 Tippling Ways
Ramblin N Gamblin is very fast, and may be the quickest of all here. She’s done virtually nothing wrong in her turf starts and she still ran credibly behind a winner last out who was just a touch fast than her. From the outside it looked like Do What I Say was going to get caught up in an early pace battle last out with the presence of a lot of speed. Didn’t prove to be the case and she showed a new dimension which she could put into effect once again today. She’s got some talent. Tippling Ways won her debut very easily with enough left in the tank. It’s a big step up here but the filly she beat came back to win a gritty maiden special weight next out.
Race 9, 4:55 p.m.
Selections: No. 8 Waves On the Sea, No. 1 Flashtastic, No. 9 Matters to Me
Waves On the Sea cuts back in distance after leading and fading last out. Her most recent sprint was a very strong weekend as we saw the winner repeat against allowance company on Preakness weekend. Flashtastic should be better on the cutback to one turn on the turf. Hopefully she can settle and make one-run from off the pace. Matter to Me runs for a barn that does very well with maiden claimer first timer starters. Good post for debut.
Best bet: Race 3, No. 10 Heavenly Perfect
Price play: Race 9, No. 8 Waves on the Sea