Washington baseball creates pitchmen duel

Special Report: Some say that with two teams in the region, both would suffer. Others say competition would make the O's better.

By Ed Waldman | Sun Staff

June 14, 2004

"I love Camden Yards," said Pete Sackleh, 41, of Falls Church, Va., who said he'd still back the Orioles if the Montreal Expos moved to D.C. (Sun photo by Karl Merton Ferron / June 6, 2004)

If the Montreal Expos relocate to the Washington area, it would be the beginning of the end for the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles' revenue would plummet, cutting the money for player payroll and development.

The Orioles and the franchise down the road would be - at best - mediocre teams.

Or ...

If the Expos relocate to the Washington area, it would not hurt the Baltimore Orioles - in fact, it would make them better. Majority owner Peter G. Angelos would be forced to spend more to field a better team, and his employees in the B&O warehouse would be forced to improve marketing.

The competition would drive both the Orioles and the Expos toward the top tier.

So, there you have it.

The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. And how Major League Baseball perceives the truth will determine whether the Expos' new home will be Washington or Northern Virginia or a more distant destination.

Marc Ganis, president of Sportscorp Ltd., a Chicago-based sports consulting firm, said the Orioles would suffer if a team moved nearby.

"Anyone who asserts otherwise has an agenda and is not looking at it in an unbiased manner," he said.

"There will be a significant segment of the baseball ticket-buying market that lives in Washington, Northern Virginia and in Maryland that .... will become ticket buyers of the Washington baseball club over the Orioles. It has an impact."

But Andrew Zimbalist, a professor of economics at Smith College and the author of Baseball and Billions, said that putting a team in the Washington area would have "a small impact ... very small."

He predicted that the Orioles' TV market would shrink and income from television might drop slightly. That might mean that the team would have less to spend for players, causing it to become less competitive - at least temporarily.

"I think that the Orioles, over time, they will recycle and have a few years of going to the postseason," he said.

There is broad agreement that if there were no Baltimore Orioles, the Expos would already be in Washington or Northern Virginia. A stadium financing plan meets Major League Baseball's specifications. And the region has by far the largest population, television market and per capita income among the contenders, which also include Las Vegas; Norfolk, Va.; Portland, Ore.; Monterrey, Mexico; and San Juan, Puerto Rico.

The search for a new home for the Expos, which began in 2002, could culminate in a selection by baseball commissioner Bud Selig next month. The decision, which must be approved by three-fourths of the owners, could come around the All-Star Game, on July 13.

The dire scenario

Orioles' attendance peaked at 3.71 million in 1997 - the year the team last won the American League East - and has declined every year since then. Attendance last year was down nearly 34 percent from 1997.

A 1995 study by the consulting firm of Deloitte & Touche, paid for by the team and updated in 2000, concluded that up to 25 percent of the Orioles' fans come from Washington and its suburbs.

In 2003, the Orioles took in nearly $50 million in ticket revenue, based on an average ticket price of $20.15 - according to the trade publication Team Marketing Report - and attendance of 2.45 million. This year, after raising ticket prices to an average of $22.56 and improving the team (at least on paper), the Orioles expect to take in more.

But if Washington-area fans were to stay home to support a new team, the Orioles might generate millions of dollars less in ticket revenue.