Subscriber Services

Text size:

Reality often ruins best predictions

Childs Walker | Fantasy Sports

June 15, 2008

It doesn't take the deepest insight to say that baseball is a surprising, even confounding game.

But it's healthy for us as fantasy players to step back every so often and recognize how much the game flips our expectations on their heads.

Smart preparation helps in broad strokes, but by June, I inevitably feel that the season has scattered my rational expectations all about.

Childs Walker E-mail | Recent columns

I consider myself a not-stupid observer of the sport. But Milton Bradley, Ryan Ludwick, Nate McLouth and J.D. Drew ranking among the best hitters in baseball? How could I or anyone else have predicted that?

I mean seriously folks, that quartet has far outperformed Vladimir Guerrero, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira (Mount St. Joseph).

Show me the preseason guide that predicted any of this. No, really, if somebody knew, I want to become a follower.

Lance Berkman is not only on pace for career-best hitting numbers, but he has also already set a career high in stolen bases. At a slightly doughy 220 pounds, he had more steals than Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran going into this weekend.

I couldn't make this stuff up.

Injuries have struck some of our most reliable talents, from David Ortiz to Alex Rodriguez.

At the same time, the Texas Rangers' Bradley, a player who could never stay healthy, is contending for a batting title and on pace to hit 37 homers, almost double his career high.

In New York, the Yankees' Jason Giambi has pulled his career from near extinction ... again.

The craziness has hit close to home, as it usually does.

I was angry that in one league, my fellow owners bid me to $16 on Carlos Quentin. I worried that the Chicago White Sox wouldn't let him play. Now that he's on pace for 40 homers and 140 RBIs, he looks like a keeper.

Conversely, I thought his teammate Paul Konerko would be a reliable anchor. He's been more like a lead weight, dragging my teams to the bottom of the standings.

And if you haven't noticed, every guy I've mentioned so far is a hitter -- supposedly the more reliable class of ballplayer.

On the pitching side, the best in the game has been a rookie, one developed by the Rangers no less. I keep expecting Edinson Volquez's ERA to blast above 2.00. And he keeps shutting down hitters in mighty defiance.

Cliff Lee found Greg Maddux's control in the offseason, and Ervin Santana has outpitched Johan Santana.

Former Oriole Mike Mussina is on pace to win 20 games for the first time at age 39.

Chic Cy Young Award pick Justin Verlander's ERA sits at well over 4.00 and would-be teammate Dontrelle Willis sits at Single-A.

E-mail

Single page

Reprint

Reality often ruins best predictions

Online resources

Going deep


High school sports Share your photos and view images submitted by other readers. Reader videos \| Talk forums \| Trivia quizzes

Going deep Sun sports special reports and in-depth coverage
	> 1983 O's > Recruiting Tavon Austin > Football: The tie that binds > Orioles > Baltimore Colts > Going deep: Other sports

Reality often ruins best predictions

Related topic galleries: David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Jason Giambi, Greg Maddux, Johan Santana, Miguel Cabrera, Vladimir Guerrero

Popular stories: Sports

Poll: Will Ravens win opener?

Online resources

Going deep