Give me Carl Edwards over Tony Stewart by a smidge.
Do the math: Stewart hasn't won at Homestead since 2000.
Roush Fenway Racing drivers have won six of the seven Chase races held at Homestead. That includes victories for Edwards in 2008 and 2010.
Still, it's going to be a doozy. Stewart has won two of the four races at intermediate tracks this season, so he should be good to go at another intermediate stop. He has the confidence and cockiness to pull it off.
But Edwards is no Denny Hamlin. He won't wilt under pressure. All he has to do is stay marginally ahead of Stewart on Sunday, and he has this thing.
Stewart has experience
Entering NASCAR's final regular-season race, Tony Stewart said he didn't much care if he made the Chase playoffs. In Stewart's bottom-line world, his team wasn't good enough to compete for the championship. And the beauty of Stewart is, he wasn't playing coy.
Stewart's handicapping wasn't far-fetched. He was winless during the regular season, threatening his 12-year streak with at least one checkered flag. Then the Chase began. Stewart won the first race. And the second, plus two more to emerge as the sole challenger to points leader Carl Edwards entering Sunday's finale.
Edwards never has won a title; Stewart did in 2002 and '05. Here's guessing that experience pays off with a third.