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Tropical wave in central Caribbean producing only a few showers, thunderstorms

2 p.m. update:

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean is producing only a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

It is moving westward at about 20 mph. It has only a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA ISPRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANTDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES GENERALLYWESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OFHISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AREPOSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THENEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER PASCH

8 a.m. update:

Showers and thunderstorms from a tropical wave over the central Caribbean have diminished.

There is only a low chance, 10 percent, of it becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours as it moves westward over Hispaniola and Cuba.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THECENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANTDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARDNEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA ANDCUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERPUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SPREAD ACROSSJAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER PASCH

8 p.m. update

The tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward Islands, Hispanola and Puerto Rico.

There is a low chance, 10 percent, that it will become a tropical cyclone due to upper-level winds becoming less conducive and its interaction with Hispaniola.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTORICO...AND THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICALWAVE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...ASWELL AS THE INTERACTION OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH THE LAND MASSES OFHISPANIOLA AND CUBA...ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANTDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THEWEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.NEVERTHELESS...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDSCAN BE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER FRANKLINNNNN

1:45 p.m. update:

The tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

There is a low chance, 10 percent, that it will become a tropical cyclone due to upper-level winds becoming less conducive and its interaction with Hispaniola.

ABNT20 KNHC 231732TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCINGDISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ANDPUERTO RICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TOUPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND INTERACTION WITHHISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVESTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARDISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLYSUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BLAKE

Previous Saturday morning report:

A tropical wave near the Leeward Islands weakened overnight.

As of 8 a.m. on Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next two days.

That's down from 30 percent on Friday night, when forecasters said it was starting to look well defined.

The system, which is moving west-northwest, shows no signs of a surface circulation and upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development on Sunday, hurricane specialist Eric Blake said.

However, it could produce heavy rains and gusty winds over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, he said. Models for now point the system toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, the hurricane center has issued its last advisory on what was once Tropical Storm Cindy, as it has dissipated over the North Atlantic.

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