Reminder: The Golden Globes are not an actual predictor of the Academy Awards. They may share winners, but the voting bodies are completely different, as the Globes are chosen by the secret society that is the Hollywood Foreign Press.
Still, Sunday's show is hosted by Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, and most of the big awards contenders are nominated -- with several comedies categorized as dramas and vice-versa, sigh -- so it's worth acknowledging who actually deserves to win (rather than just predicting the often-predictable winners). And who's just nominated because her name is Meryl Streep.
Best Picture, drama
Deserves it: "12 Years a Slave." Brilliant, unflinching.
Runner-up: "Captain Phillips." Exciting, suspenseful.
Snubbed: "Spring Breakers." The only people who don't take it seriously haven't seen it. Surprising and complex.
Best Actress, drama
Deserves it: Judi Dench, "Philomena." The best of the bunch.
Best Actor, drama
Deserves it: Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave." Searing, unforgettable.
Snubbed: Jonathan Groff in the little-seen "C.O.G."
Best Picture, comedy or musical
Deserves it: "Her." Lovely, sad, meaningful. (More of a drama though.)
Runner-up: "Inside Llewyn Davis." Great songs, vintage Coens.
Best Actress, comedy or musical
Better not win: Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County." Doesn't need to be nominated for everything!
Snubbed: Olivia Wilde's stellar work in "Drinking Buddies."
Best Actor, comedy or musical
Deserves it: Oscar Isaac, "Inside Llewyn Davis." Subtle, unsentimental, memorable.
Best Supporting Actress
Deserves it: Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle." Steals the movie.
Better not win: Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County." Nominated only because of who she is. Also nominated: Sally Walkins, good in "Blue Jasmine."
Snubbed: Scarlett Johansson creating a full person with her voice in a computer in "Her"; Lea Seydoux's daring, layered performance in "Blue is the Warmest Color"
Best Supporting Actor
Deserves it: Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave." Terrifying but never cartoonish or easily dismissed.
Deserves it: Steve McQueen, "12 Years a Slave." A fantastic achievement that's also a great movie.
Deserves it: Spike Jonze, "Her." Gives the clichÈ about our lack of connection new life.
Runner-up: John Ridley, "12 Years a Slave." A very well-written movie, but that's not its greatest strength.
Better not win: Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell for the voiceover-heavy "American Hustle." Also nominated: Bob Nelson's not-especially-funny "Nebraska" and Jeff Pope & Steve Coogan's nice "Philomena."
Snubbed: Joel and Ethan Coen, "Inside Llewyn Davis." The movie's quality doesn't just come from the music and acting.
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