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Forecasters eyeing rainy Thanksgiving coastal storm

The climate pattern that has sent two storms up the East Coast in the past month could re-emerge around Thanksgiving, making for a possibly wet holiday.

Blocking over the Atlantic is expected next week, though where it settles and how it interacts with weather systems isn't clear yet. But one important indicator, the North Atlantic Oscillation, is showing stormy weather is likely, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Henry Margusity.

The National Weather Service expects the highest rain potential for the coastal Carolinas and the Delmarva peninsula, according to the latest models. But it's not clear yet how closely the storm will track to the coast, forecasters say.

AccuWeather's Elliot Abrams is leaning toward a mild and dry Thanksgiving, but a large storm is lurking off the coast in models, which could change as the time nears. Margusity suggests that if a storm doesn't materialize for Thanksgiving, another could crop up the week after.

The Weather Underground's Central Maryland weather blogger is predicting a similar path as last week's nor'easter storm, which brought the heaviest precipitation to the northeast of the Baltimore area and virtually none in our region. Scattered flurries, sleet or showers are possible, though it's possible the system could be pushed farther inland bringing heavier precipitation and wind.

It's still too early to give any prediction too much credence. A look at the weather service's local forecast shows dry and sunny but brisk weather through early next week in the Baltimore area. 

Have a weather question? E-mail me at sdance@baltsun.com or tweet to @MdWeather.

Copyright © 2015, The Baltimore Sun
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