WASHINGTON—When House impeachment hearings opened, everyone was certain of one thing: Congress would never impeach President Clinton.
Today, that prediction is very much in doubt. The House of Representatives seems ready to approve at least one article of impeachment next week, sending the matter to the Senate for trial.
This represents a breathtaking reversal of fortune for Clinton, who looked to be home-free last month as hearings began.
After all, the Republicans had failed to make gains in the midterm elections, and it was House Speaker Newt Gingrich, not the president, who was forced out.
If Clinton is impeached, it wouldn't be the first time conventional wisdom was proved wrong this year. The entire impeachment saga can be viewed as a chain of confounding events, each more unexpected than the next.
Indeed, the growing consensus that the House will vote to impeach the president may, paradoxically, be a sign that it won't happen.
Members of Congress are just starting to drift back into town, and the reality of the vote they are about to cast is only beginning to sink in.
At the same time, it is increasingly clear that congressional leaders are exercising far less control over the impeachment process than many might have expected.
The result has been a chaotic process, in which a number of myths have been created, and then obliterated. Among them:
Impeachment must be a bipartisan process.
Rep. Henry J. Hyde, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, breathed life into this one way back in January. After the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, the veteran Illinois representative said that any attempt to impeach Clinton would have to involve both parties.
"I can't stress this too much," Hyde said, mindful that without Democratic support, impeachment would fail in the Senate. "It has to elicit bipartisan support. So nothing much will happen until the Democrats decide something should happen."
In October, the House authorized a formal inquiry largely along party lines, with five of every six Democrats voting against.
This week, the Judiciary Committee is expected to approve articles of impeachment against Clinton without any Democratic backing. And next week, fewer than 10 Democrats, out of 206, are likely to favor impeachment when the full House votes.
Impeachment is essentially a political process. A president cannot be impeached unless the public approves.
If there has been one constant throughout the Lewinsky mess, it's public opinion. A clear majority of Americans has opposed impeachment from the start. By a roughly 2-to-1 margin, the country believes that the president should be allowed to serve out his term.
The results of last month's election served only to make the prospect of impeachment more remote.
Hyde said during the campaign that a status-quo election would make impeachment less likely. On the day after the election, he began talking for the first time about censuring Clinton as an alternative to impeachment.
Today, polls show the public still clearly opposes impeachment. But, as Republican Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee put it: "The polls no longer are going to dictate this."