As economy sputters, poll favors Democrats to win

Since February, tide turned against GOP

By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar | Tribune Newspapers

May 11, 2008

WASHINGTON — Even with Democrats tangled in a fractious presidential primary, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama probably would beat presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the popular vote if the election were held now, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll.

McCain remains competitive, but the poll identified one important vulnerability: Voters ranked him lowest among the three candidates on who could best handle the nation's economic problems —by far the public's most pressing concern.

Of the three main candidates, Clinton inspired the most confidence on the economy, even though she appears unlikely to win the Democratic nomination.

In a hypothetical matchup between Clinton and McCain, the New York senator led the Arizonan by 47 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent saying they were undecided.

In a contest between Obama and McCain, the poll gave the Illinois senator a 46 percent to 40 percent lead over the Republican, with 9 percent undecided. The nationwide poll released Friday had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The results represent a shift from a Times/Bloomberg poll in February, in which McCain led Clinton by 6 percentage points and Obama by 2, within the poll's margin of error.

"Although there is such infighting now between the two Democratic candidates, we are finding that both Democrats are beating McCain, and this could be attributed to the weakening of the economy," said Times polling director Susan Pinkus, who supervised the survey.

For example, among the 78 percent of voters who said they believe the economy has slid into a recession, 52 percent would vote for Obama, compared with 32 percent for McCain. A matchup between Clinton and McCain showed nearly identical results.

The poll was based on telephone interviews with 2,208 adults nationwide—1,986 of them registered voters—from May 1 to May 8. That time period included several days before and after Tuesday's Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, which Clinton and Obama split.

The poll offered insights for Democrats trying to discern whether Obama or Clinton would better represent their party against McCain.

For example, Clinton and McCain were essentially tied among voters ages 65 or older. But if the race were between Obama and McCain, the Republican would lead, 47 percent to 41 percent.

Among people 18-44, Obama led McCain by 55 percent to 35 percent. Clinton generated less enthusiasm with that age group, leading McCain 48 percent to 35 percent.

Blacks would vote overwhelmingly for Obama. In the poll, he carried 79 percent of blacks, with 3 percent supporting McCain.

If Clinton were the Democratic nominee, however, McCain's share of the black vote would rise to 9 percent, roughly in line with the performance of past GOP presidential candidates. Clinton had 60 percent of the black vote, with 23 percent of respondents saying they would be undecided.

Among Baby Boomers, both Democrats edged McCain, with Clinton leading 47 percent to 39 percent and Obama by 45 to 37 percent.

A majority of voters, 56 percent, said the economy should be the top priority for the presidential candidates.

Los Angeles Times