Slots foes hope that black voters energized by Barack Obama's presidential bid will heed their ministers' objections to gambling - as sermonized from pulpits across the state in recent weeks - and cast a ballot against Question 2, which would change the state's constitution to allow slot machine gambling.
Marylanders United to Stop Slots, a ballot committee, claims endorsements from two of the largest black church networks in the state, tapping into a deep history of political activism among African-American ministers. The anti-slots group has turned hundreds of churches into "literature distribution centers" for anti-gambling material, activists said.
But while urban ministries have formidable get-out-the-vote operations, some of the state's most prominent black pastors are staying out of the gambling debate. And some African-American leaders said they believe a majority of black voters will come out in favor of slots, either because they are swayed by economic arguments or simply like to gamble.
Former state Sen. Larry Young, host of a Baltimore radio talk show with a predominantly black audience, said he has noticed an increase in callers opposing slots but that most are still in favor of the proposal. Young attributes the anti-slots shift in the conversation to the "church base" but noted that he sees many fellow black gamblers at casinos in Delaware and New Jersey.
On Nov. 4, slots proponents "will get the majority of the black vote," Young predicted.
The Rev. Frank M. Reid III, pastor of the 17,000-member Bethel AME Church in West Baltimore, said that bad economic news in recent weeks probably would push a slim majority of black voters into the "yes" category.
"The cuts to the state budget, the cuts to education ... that may cause people to come out and vote for gambling," said Reid, who has decided not to take a formal position on the question despite personal misgivings about gambling.
Slots supporters, among them Gov. Martin O'Malley and Mayor Sheila Dixon, argue that millions of dollars in gambling revenue would be used to improve public education and reduce property taxes.
Relying on the black church to propel an anti-slots message has been a strategy of necessity for gambling opponents, who are up against both the state's Democratic political establishment and the deep pockets of the gambling industry, which has poured millions into a pro-slots campaign.
Opinion polls have long showed that most Marylanders support the concept of slot machine gambling, and thousands head across state lines yearly to wager in West Virginia, Delaware and Pennsylvania. But slots opponents contend that their underdog status will be offset by a record number of new voters heading to the polls in Maryland this year, especially black voters energized by the historic presidential election.
About 3.4 million Maryland voters are registered this election season, up from 3.1 million in 2004, according to the most recent statistics from the State Board of Elections.
Earlier this month, Marylanders United to Stop Slots explicitly linked its cause to Obama's presidential bid. "Even Barack Obama has opposed gambling," an actor said in a radio ad airing on Baltimore urban radio stations. "He knows it's only gonna take us back."
The anti-slots group said it later stripped the reference to Obama - who as an Illinois state senator decried the "moral and social cost" of gambling - after the Democrat's campaign made the request to avoid involvement in a local political issue. But slots opponents say they will continue to emphasize the presidential candidate's reported misgivings about gambling in events targeting the African-American community.
"It's something we certainly mention, and we'll continue to do so," said Scott Arceneaux, a senior adviser to the effort.
Donald F. Norris, a professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, said that in a state where a quarter of the voters are black, winning the demographic is crucial on statewide issues.
"If you get that, you're doing well," he said.
Norris said he would not be surprised if a majority of African-American voters rejected slots, and called churches "a fertile place to go hunting for votes." But pulling in the other direction are factors such as the endorsement of the referendum by Dixon, Baltimore's first black female mayor.