THE SUN POLL

The Baltimore Sun commissioned a telephone survey of 742 likely Baltimore Democratic primary voters from Aug. 22 to 24. The Sun's pollster, OpinionWorks of Annapolis, used the Baltimore City Board of Elections database to identify registered voters with a history of voting in municipal primary elections, and gathered survey results from those who ranked their likelihood of voting in the upcoming September primary “50-50” or higher. The Sun's sample was designed to approximate the racial, gender, geographic, and age breakdown of the City’s Democratic primary voting population, based on turnout patterns averaged over the last three primary elections. The margin of error for questions that reflect the entire sample is 3.6 percentage points, which means that in 95 times out of 100, the actual answer obtained by surveying every Baltimore City Democratic primary voter would be within 3.6 percentage points of the answer obtained by using the sample.

 

The following is the poll script as read to respondents, with results.

 

Issue Environment

  1. What, in your opinion, is the most important issue or challenge facing the City of Baltimore today – I mean the one you would most like to see the Mayor and City Council do something about?  (Open-ended; DO NOT READ LIST; clarify as needed but do not probe. Accept only the first response.)

 

Crime/Criminal Justice/Drugs.................................................................................. 39%

Economy/Jobs......................................................................................................... 18%

Education/Schools.................................................................................................... 12%

Taxes too high/Cut Taxes........................................................................................ 10%

Growth/Development................................................................................................. 5%

Environment/Chesapeake Bay.................................................................................. 2%

Traffic/Transportation/Roads/Mass Transit................................................................ 2%

Recreation centers/Youth programs/Summer jobs................................................... 1%

Social Services/Help those in need............................................................................ 1%

Vote out incumbents/Need change............................................................................ 1%

Other (Specify.).......................................................................................................... 6%

Not sure (Skip to Q.3.)............................................................................................... 3%

 

Job Approval

  1. Generally speaking, do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the way Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is handling her job as Mayor of Baltimore?

 

Strongly approve...................................................................................................... 26%

Somewhat approve.................................................................................................. 42%

Approve (Total)................................................................................................ 68%

Somewhat disapprove.............................................................................................. 12%

Strongly disapprove.................................................................................................. 12%

Disapprove (Total)........................................................................................... 24%

Not sure...................................................................................................................... 8%

  1. Looking back now on Sheila Dixon’s time as Mayor, do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the way Sheila Dixon handled her job as Mayor of Baltimore?

 

Strongly approve...................................................................................................... 26%

Somewhat approve.................................................................................................. 28%

Approve (Total)................................................................................................ 53%

Somewhat disapprove.............................................................................................. 17%

Strongly disapprove.................................................................................................. 25%

Disapprove (Total)........................................................................................... 42%

Not sure...................................................................................................................... 5%

 

Favorabilities

  1. Now I am going to read you the names of some people and ask if you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of them.  If you don’t recognize the name, just say so.  The first is…  (Randomize names.)

 

 

Favorable

Unfavorable

Heard of,

but no opinion

Don’t

recognize

name

Not

sure

A. Frank Conaway

34%

31%

21%

13%

1%

B. Jody Landers

19%

9%

21%

49%

2%

C. Catherine Pugh

44%

19%

21%

15%

1%

D. Stephanie Rawlings-Blake

68%

20%

9%

1%

2%

E. Sheila Dixon

43%

46%

8%

1%

1%

F. Otis Rolley

29%

16%

26%

28%

2%

G. Wilton Wilson

4%

9%

14%

71%

2%

 

Mayoral Race

  1. If the Democratic primary election for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were (read and randomize list) for whom would you vote? (N=697)

 

Stephanie Rawlings-Blake  (Skip to Q.8)................................................................. 50%

Catherine Pugh (Skip to Q.8.).................................................................................. 12%

Otis Rolley (Skip to Q.8).......................................................................................... 10%

Frank Conaway (Skip to Q.8).................................................................................... 5%

Jody Landers  (Skip to Q.8)....................................................................................... 5%

Wilton Wilson  (Skip to Q.8)....................................................................................... 1%

(Do not read): Other (Specify.)................................................................................... *%

(Do not read): Undecided/Not sure (Continue with Q.6.)......................................... 18%

Note: 45 respondents refused to state their voter preference and are not included in these totals. These voters were skipped to Q.11.

 

(If undecided/not sure):

  1. Do you lean toward one of the candidates at this time? (Do not read list unless needed.)

 

Stephanie Rawlings-Blake....................................................................................... 12%

Catherine Pugh .......................................................................................................... 5%

Otis Rolley ................................................................................................................. 3%

Frank Conaway.......................................................................................................... 2%

Jody Landers.............................................................................................................. 1%

Wilton Wilson............................................................................................................... *%

(Do not read): Other................................................................................................... 4%

(Do not read): Totally undecided/Not sure............................................................... 73%

 

  1. Do you think you will definitely make up your mind by Election Day and vote, or is there a good chance you won’t end up voting for mayor?

 

Will definitely make up mind and vote..................................................................... 98%

Good chance won’t vote............................................................................................ 1%

Not sure/Refused....................................................................................................... 1%

(Undecided voters skip to Q.11.)

 

(If supports any candidate in Q.5):

  1. Is your support for {candidate mentioned in Q.5} firm, or could you still change your mind?

 

Firm.......................................................................................................................... 57%

Could change mind.................................................................................................. 41%

Not sure/Refused....................................................................................................... 2%

 

  1. When did you make up your mind to support {him/her}? (Read list.)

 

In the last day or two.................................................................................................. 6%

In the last week........................................................................................................... 8%

In the last month....................................................................................................... 19%

More than a month ago............................................................................................ 57%

(Do not read): Not sure............................................................................................... 9%

 

  1. Who would be your second choice for Mayor? (Pause; re-read remaining list, if necessary.)

 

Catherine Pugh......................................................................................................... 19%

Stephanie Rawlings-Blake....................................................................................... 12%

Frank Conaway ....................................................................................................... 11%

Otis Rolley................................................................................................................ 11%

Jody Landers.............................................................................................................. 8%

Wilton Wilson.............................................................................................................. 2%

(Do not read): Other................................................................................................... 1%

(Do not read): Refused to say ................................................................................... *%

(Do not read): No second choice/Not sure.............................................................. 35%

 

(All):

  1. Looking ahead to 2015, if Sheila Dixon were to be a candidate for mayor again, would you consider supporting her, or would you not consider that?

 

Would consider supporting her................................................................................. 34%

Would not consider that............................................................................................ 54%

Not sure/Depends..................................................................................................... 12%

 

Other Issues

  1. As you may know, there is a slots facility proposed for Baltimore City.  By law, the city may use the slots revenue only to build schools or to reduce property taxes.  In your opinion, should the city… (Read list; rotate reading top to bottom and bottom to top.)

 

Direct all of the revenue to build schools................................................................. 11%

Direct most of it to build schools.............................................................................. 15%

Schools (Total)................................................................................................ 25%

Divide it equally........................................................................................................ 54%

Direct most of it to reduce property taxes.................................................................. 6%

Direct all of the revenue to reduce property taxes..................................................... 8%

Reduce taxes (Total)....................................................................................... 14%

(Do not read): Not sure/Depends............................................................................... 7%

 

  1. On Labor Day weekend, the city will host the first-ever Baltimore Grand Prix, a three-day event featuring Indianapolis 500-style cars racing through the streets near the Inner Harbor.  Have you heard about the Baltimore Grand Prix?

 

Yes, have heard....................................................................................................... 96%

No, have not heard..................................................................................................... 4%

Not sure....................................................................................................................... *%

 

  1. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Baltimore Grand Prix?

 

Favorable.................................................................................................................. 38%

Unfavorable.............................................................................................................. 39%

No opinion/Not sure.................................................................................................. 23%

 

  1. Will your opinion of it be a factor in how you vote for mayor?

 

Yes............................................................................................................................ 17%

No............................................................................................................................. 77%

Not sure...................................................................................................................... 7%