July 4, 2008
Dixon keeps strong lead
Mitchell edges up in poll, but race appears to be mayor's to lose
Malissia Graves (left), owner of Because of U salon, and her mother, Delorese Graves (right), greet Mayor Sheila Dixon as she visits barber shops and beauty salons during her campaign. (Colby Ware/Special to the Sun / August 31, 2007)
Despite modest gains by her chief opponent, Baltimore Mayor Sheila Dixon maintains a dominating lead ahead of this month's Democratic primary, a new poll for The Sun shows.
Her opponents have attacked her ethics and have blamed her for this year's staggering increase in homicides, but Dixon's large lead has barely eroded - though an increasing percentage of voters do say that they have an unfavorable impression of her.
With nine days until the Sept. 11 election, Dixon leads City Councilman Keiffer J. Mitchell Jr. by 46 percent to 19 percent - a 27 percentage-point spread - according to the poll conducted by OpinionWorks, an independent Annapolis-based firm. More than a quarter of voters are still undecided.
Mitchell has slightly closed the yawning 32 percentage-point gap that separated the two candidates in a July poll for The Sun, but several experts said his campaign has not made enough progress this summer to pose a real threat to Dixon's election.
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"Dixon has held just rock solid," said Steve Raabe, president and founder of OpinionWorks. "There's this kind of simmering dissatisfaction out there, but it has not really filtered into the mayor's race to the benefit of any of her challengers."
The other candidates in the mayor's race received less than 5 percent of the vote each - identical to their support in the July poll. Schools administrator Andrey Bundley, who ran for mayor once before in 2003, received 4 percent, and Del. Jill P. Carter received 2 percent.
She became Baltimore's first woman mayor when Martin O'Malley was sworn in as governor Jan. 17. Since then she has raised more money, received more key endorsements and purchased more television airtime to get her message out.
"My guess is it's all over but the final tally as far as the Mitchell campaign is concerned," said Donald F. Norris, a professor and chairman of the public policy department at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. "When you're down by 27 points with less than two weeks to go, it's virtually impossible and unheard of to come back."
Lenneal J. Henderson, a professor at the University of Baltimore's School of Public Affairs, agreed.
"I think it is over. It would take a huge misstep on the part of Sheila Dixon for her not to win this one," he said.
"She would have to do something really egregious for her not to win this one. I mean 8 on the Richter scale."
Dixon is doing better among blacks and whites, men and women, those who own their homes and those who rent, as well as every age group, education level and geographic region of the city.
Only 29 percent of voters said the city is heading in the right direction, a drop from 34 percent who felt that way in The Sun's July poll.
More people said they now have an unfavorable impression of Dixon and Mitchell - likely the result of negative television advertising both campaigns have been airing.
Dixon's net favorable opinion - which is the difference between those who view her favorably and unfavorably - dropped from 56 percent to 47 percent.
Mitchell's declined from 38 percent to 23 percent.
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