Tom, Rockville: What impact will the endorsements for Montgomery County
Executive Doug Duncan by [former] Gov. [William Donald] Schaefer and [former Baltimore] Mayor [Kurt L.] Schmoke have upon the Democrat primary between Duncan and [Baltimore] Mayor [Martin] O'Malley? Do you think that their endorsements will suppress voter turnout for O'Malley in Baltimore enough to tip the balance to Duncan?
Nitkin: Endorsements of politicians matter most when they have large political machines behind them who they bring into the battle. Schmoke has been out of office for a while, and has faded as a force in Baltimore; Schaefer is popular among voters, but the strength of his machine has also eroded. Their endorsements will not be decisive in either the primary or general elections.
Tim, Rockville: If Duncan ends up defeating O'Malley in the Democrat primary for governor, do you think that he would drop his lieutenant governor pick from the ticket and choose O'Malley to run on his ticket in the general election against Gov. [Robert L.] Ehrlich [Jr.]? Would O'Malley accept?
Nitkin: I can't see either happening -- Duncan dropping his running mate or O'Malley accepting a No. 2 spot.
Ron, Gaithersburg: Why has Duncan done better than O'Malley against Ehrlich in several recent independent polls (Rasmussen)? What else can this possibly suggest except that Duncan is the stronger candidate in any general election contest with Ehrlich?
Nitkin: Politicians like to say that the only poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day. The Sun does not widely publicize polls that we do not commission ourselves, because there is not a good way to verify the methodology and other factors -- such as the order of questions. The most recent Sun poll, conducted in November, had O'Malley ahead of Duncan in a primary, 42 percent to 23 percent, with 34 percent undecided.
Rod, Timonium: Will O'Malley run for the Senate if he loses this year's election for governor?
Nitkin: I assume you mean for the Senate seat currently held by Barbara A. Mikulski, which is up in 2010? He can't run for the [Paul S.] Sarbanes seat and governor at the same time. As for the other seat, it's a possibility, yes.
Bob, Mount Washington: While The Sun has made a big issue of the differences between Ehrlich and [Lt. Gov. Michael S.] Steele on issues such as the death penalty, why hasn't there been equal coverage about the differences between O'Malley and [Del. Anthony G.] Brown on slots?
Nitkin: As the General Assembly session heats up and slots are debated once again, we'll write more on the topic -- including the differences between Brown (strongly anti-slots) and O'Malley (who supports slots at Pimlico to save racing jobs).
Bruce, Rockville: Do you think the politics of Frederick County as the demographics change will eventually end up moving toward the Democrats the way Loudon and Prince William counties in Virginia appear to be doing after this last election in 2005?
Nitkin: That's an interesting question. I certainly think Frederick County -- which leans Republican -- has the potential to be swing territory in statewide elections, and a lot will depend on the political inclinations of the people who move there in coming years. There's a lot of growth in the county, and the answer to your question depends a lot on identifying the people who make up that growth. But your analogy is intriguing.
Stuart, Baltimore: How come The Sun is not investigating the identity of "MD4Bush" and his possible ties to O'Malley?
Nitkin: I've said repeatedly that The Sun is interested in learning the identity of the Internet poster who talked about O'Malley. The source of the information must come from the Web site itself, www.freerepublic.com. We've gotten some information from them. We'd like to get more.
Ken, Frederick: Is Maryland being considered for becoming one of the next early primary states? Maryland, unlike the other early primary states, actually has some diversity. Would we not represent choosing a nominee better than all-white states like New Hampshire or Iowa?
Nitkin: National politicians were talking about having two more-diverse states hold caucuses between the Iowa and New Hampshire voting. Maryland would fit the bill, but we've gotten no word that this is one of the states under consideration.
Jackie, Dundalk: Will Duncan invite Baltimore County's longest serving state senator, and labor's No. 1 state senator, Norman Stone, to be his lieutenant governor?
Nitkin: Conventional wisdom holds that Duncan will select an African-American leader from either Baltimore City or Prince George's County as a running mate.
Editor's note: The next three questions are taken together.
David, Baltimore: Given that O'Malley promised to do more when he ran for re-election in 2004, and then turned around just one year later and abandoned the people of Baltimore by choosing to run for governor, will O'Malley resign if he loses either the Democrat primary to Duncan or the general election to Ehrlich?
Steve, Baltimore: What will O'Malley's political future hold should he lose to Duncan in the Democrat primary or Ehrlich in the general election in 2006? Will he stay on as mayor of Baltimore or do something else?
Doug, Rockville: If O'Malley is unsuccessful in the race for governor, will he stay on as mayor of Baltimore, resign or do something else?
Nitkin: If O'Malley loses the governor's race, many observers think he won't run for re-election as mayor in 2007. There would be no reason for him to resign. But I wouldn't rule out a return to politics later.
Wendy, Ellicott City: How big or small of an issue will women's reproductive rights be in the gubernatorial and the U.S. Senate races in Maryland?
Nitkin: It will be a larger issue in the Senate race than in the governor's race. Steele, the likely GOP Senate candidate, is an opponent of abortion rights and the death penalty -- views that stem at least from his days as a Catholic seminarian. Ehrlich backs abortion rights, although activists on the issue such as the National Abortion Rights Action League aren't fully enamored of his position.
Jim, Columbia: Why does the Republican administration allow all of the gas gouging going on in Maryland?
Nitkin: The General Assembly this year will consider anti-price gouging legislation, which became an issue following Hurricane Katrina.
Nitkin: Endorsements of politicians matter most when they have large political machines behind them who they bring into the battle. Schmoke has been out of office for a while, and has faded as a force in Baltimore; Schaefer is popular among voters, but the strength of his machine has also eroded. Their endorsements will not be decisive in either the primary or general elections.
Tim, Rockville: If Duncan ends up defeating O'Malley in the Democrat primary for governor, do you think that he would drop his lieutenant governor pick from the ticket and choose O'Malley to run on his ticket in the general election against Gov. [Robert L.] Ehrlich [Jr.]? Would O'Malley accept?
Nitkin: I can't see either happening -- Duncan dropping his running mate or O'Malley accepting a No. 2 spot.
Ron, Gaithersburg: Why has Duncan done better than O'Malley against Ehrlich in several recent independent polls (Rasmussen)? What else can this possibly suggest except that Duncan is the stronger candidate in any general election contest with Ehrlich?
Nitkin: Politicians like to say that the only poll that counts is the one taken on Election Day. The Sun does not widely publicize polls that we do not commission ourselves, because there is not a good way to verify the methodology and other factors -- such as the order of questions. The most recent Sun poll, conducted in November, had O'Malley ahead of Duncan in a primary, 42 percent to 23 percent, with 34 percent undecided.
Rod, Timonium: Will O'Malley run for the Senate if he loses this year's election for governor?
Nitkin: I assume you mean for the Senate seat currently held by Barbara A. Mikulski, which is up in 2010? He can't run for the [Paul S.] Sarbanes seat and governor at the same time. As for the other seat, it's a possibility, yes.
Bob, Mount Washington: While The Sun has made a big issue of the differences between Ehrlich and [Lt. Gov. Michael S.] Steele on issues such as the death penalty, why hasn't there been equal coverage about the differences between O'Malley and [Del. Anthony G.] Brown on slots?
Nitkin: As the General Assembly session heats up and slots are debated once again, we'll write more on the topic -- including the differences between Brown (strongly anti-slots) and O'Malley (who supports slots at Pimlico to save racing jobs).
Bruce, Rockville: Do you think the politics of Frederick County as the demographics change will eventually end up moving toward the Democrats the way Loudon and Prince William counties in Virginia appear to be doing after this last election in 2005?
Nitkin: That's an interesting question. I certainly think Frederick County -- which leans Republican -- has the potential to be swing territory in statewide elections, and a lot will depend on the political inclinations of the people who move there in coming years. There's a lot of growth in the county, and the answer to your question depends a lot on identifying the people who make up that growth. But your analogy is intriguing.
Stuart, Baltimore: How come The Sun is not investigating the identity of "MD4Bush" and his possible ties to O'Malley?
Nitkin: I've said repeatedly that The Sun is interested in learning the identity of the Internet poster who talked about O'Malley. The source of the information must come from the Web site itself, www.freerepublic.com. We've gotten some information from them. We'd like to get more.
Ken, Frederick: Is Maryland being considered for becoming one of the next early primary states? Maryland, unlike the other early primary states, actually has some diversity. Would we not represent choosing a nominee better than all-white states like New Hampshire or Iowa?
Nitkin: National politicians were talking about having two more-diverse states hold caucuses between the Iowa and New Hampshire voting. Maryland would fit the bill, but we've gotten no word that this is one of the states under consideration.
Jackie, Dundalk: Will Duncan invite Baltimore County's longest serving state senator, and labor's No. 1 state senator, Norman Stone, to be his lieutenant governor?
Nitkin: Conventional wisdom holds that Duncan will select an African-American leader from either Baltimore City or Prince George's County as a running mate.
Editor's note: The next three questions are taken together.
David, Baltimore: Given that O'Malley promised to do more when he ran for re-election in 2004, and then turned around just one year later and abandoned the people of Baltimore by choosing to run for governor, will O'Malley resign if he loses either the Democrat primary to Duncan or the general election to Ehrlich?
Steve, Baltimore: What will O'Malley's political future hold should he lose to Duncan in the Democrat primary or Ehrlich in the general election in 2006? Will he stay on as mayor of Baltimore or do something else?
Doug, Rockville: If O'Malley is unsuccessful in the race for governor, will he stay on as mayor of Baltimore, resign or do something else?
Nitkin: If O'Malley loses the governor's race, many observers think he won't run for re-election as mayor in 2007. There would be no reason for him to resign. But I wouldn't rule out a return to politics later.
Wendy, Ellicott City: How big or small of an issue will women's reproductive rights be in the gubernatorial and the U.S. Senate races in Maryland?
Nitkin: It will be a larger issue in the Senate race than in the governor's race. Steele, the likely GOP Senate candidate, is an opponent of abortion rights and the death penalty -- views that stem at least from his days as a Catholic seminarian. Ehrlich backs abortion rights, although activists on the issue such as the National Abortion Rights Action League aren't fully enamored of his position.
Jim, Columbia: Why does the Republican administration allow all of the gas gouging going on in Maryland?
Nitkin: The General Assembly this year will consider anti-price gouging legislation, which became an issue following Hurricane Katrina.
