Predicting the future is tricky business. It's not that prognosticating about pending technology advancements is so difficult; current trends are highly informative. It's when we try to project which technologies people will embrace that we enter the true world of the unknown (unless you happen to be hanging out with Steve Jobs when you say "we").
The best yardstick I've found for considering the future of new media is the nature of the average consumer, which is that people are simple, and most people are lazy. That means any technology that caters to the lowest common denominator with regard to complexity stands a chance of being widely adopted.
I wrote in two days ago that telephone companies, cable companies, Internet portals and companies such as Apple and TiVo are going to wage a battle of attrition in an attempt to provide consumers with the most simple ways of watching the videos they want whenever they want. As those products and services are developed, television and new media will merge onto one platform. Every piece of video will be available over broadband on demand. Whether that takes five years or closer to 10, it's inevitable.
The future of new media is that it will be mainstream media.
Between now and the time of the tipping point that represents the arrival of that future, the economics of the entertainment business will remain in dramatic flux. Studios will continue to fight a losing battle against the commoditization of distribution in order to protect the tens of billions of dollars they've invested to control access to content. At the same time, viewers will continue enjoying content in ever more flexible ways that generate less predictable revenue for the studios. So less money will come in through traditional exploitation of intellectual property, yet revenue from new media will not make up the difference.
I don't see any way around the need for future renegotiations until the tipping point occurs. So if the studios and writers finally agree on a three-year deal and the future is more than three years away, we can look forward to a repeat of the current episode.
Matt Edelman is the chief executive of PeopleJam www.peoplejam.com), a lifestyle website designed to enable people to make better life decisions through video, discussion forums and social networking. He has been a producer and executive in the film, television, Internet and mobile industries, where he has developed scripted, reality and interactive projects in live-action and animation.
You write, "Predicting the future is tricky business."