Maryland's economy has grown almost without fail in the last quarter-century, ticking up year after year.
But not in 2013.
That's according to early estimates from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which showed Maryland's gross domestic product stagnating last year — putting the state near the bottom of the national pack. Only the District of Columbia and Alaska fared worse.
It's another indication that 2013 wasn't great for Maryland, where federal budget cuts had an outsized effect because of the state's big cluster of federal contractors and agencies.
The state's personal income growth was among the nation's smallest last year, the Commerce Department reported earlier. And while job growth didn't rank quite so badly, Maryland's rate of expansion was outpaced by three-quarters of the country.
So the poor showing on GDP did not come as a complete shock to some local economists.
"It's not good news, but it's not surprising," said Richard Clinch, a locally based research economist at Battelle Memorial Institute. "I think the 2014 numbers, when they come out a year from now, are going to be slightly better. But Maryland is going to be in a period of slower growth because this government slowdown … is at least going to continue in the near term."
Groups that have long griped about the state's business climate hope the time is now ripe for tax and policy changes. The Maryland Competitiveness Coalition, led by the Maryland Chamber of Commerce and made up of 60 business groups and employers, is sharing its "action plan" for growth with candidates running for governor this year.
"Maryland has great assets, but we have some serious concerns about our future, and I think this [GDP] report that came out is an indicator that we have to change the way that we're encouraging job growth in Maryland," said Kathleen T. Snyder, the chamber's CEO.
The coalition's recommendations include economic development — such as focusing on high-tech manufacturing and the commercial side of cybersecurity — and shifts in tax policy. The group advocates for reducing the corporate income tax rate and the personal income tax rate for people earning between $100,000 and $250,000.
Though nearly all states saw some GDP expansion last year, Maryland's lagging performance was part of a regional story.
Washington's GDP declined by half a percent. Virginia's GDP blipped up a tenth of a percent. Pennsylvania was also in the bottom five, with growth of less than 1 percent.
"There's a pattern, more or less — a regional pattern," said Mikra Krasniqi, economist for the state Department of Business and Economic Development.
The biggest drag on Maryland's GDP last year was government, the Commerce Department said. Pullbacks in that sector sliced $351 million from total GDP, compared with a $551 million addition the year before.
But that number doesn't account for the full effect of federal cutbacks because it leaves out government contractors, a major part of Maryland's economy.
The Commerce Department doesn't track such businesses as a group, but the contractor-heavy professional, scientific and technical services sector — which grew even during the rough 2008-2009 recession — shrank $148 million last year. It added $785 million to GDP the year before.
The "sequestration" budget cuts and the partial government shutdown in October "took some wind out of the sails" of Maryland's economy, said Daraius Irani, executive director of the Regional Economic Studies Institute at Towson University.
Baltimore economist Anirban Basu said Maryland's problem was that nothing could offset federal cuts in a major way.
"The sectors that are really driving the economy forward in America are not really present in significant ways in Maryland," said Basu, head of Sage Policy Group, a Baltimore economic and policy consulting firm. "Among the contributors to growth in 2013 were energy production and industrial production expansion, and Maryland is not a significant player in either sector."
The state's mining and manufacturing sectors both experienced declining output. States with the biggest GDP gains included energy producers North Dakota, Wyoming and West Virginia, all of which had economic growth that topped 5 percent.