Snow possibilities on the rise here

With computer models trending more northward, the possibilities for more significant snow seem to be on the rise for the Baltimore area today.

UPDATE: The snow continues to fall, and the Winter Storm Warning is creeping farther north into the Baltimore area. Here's the latest from NWS Sterling:

"UPDATED TO UPGRADE SOUTHERN BALTIMORE...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...AND
LOUDOUN COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW. REPORTS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WE ARE ADDING A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS INCLUDES WASHINGTON
DC...FAIRFAX...PRINCE GEORGES AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES FOR 4 TO 6
INCHES."

"WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHERN
PROGRESSION OF THE BANDING AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT COULD MEAN
MORE SNOW IN THOSE COUNTIES."

Earlier post resumes:

The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for Central Maryland, with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation possible later today. The lower amounts are predicted for the northern part of the forecast area (from the Mason-Dixon Line southward) to 4 inches in Arundel and PG counties.

Farther south, the NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings, with those folks bracing for a big snowstorm. Lexington Park, down in St. Mary's County, is forecast to get 5 to 10 inches. The Lower Eastern Shore is in the same boat, with up to 10 inches due there.

It's already (10 a.m.) snowing in Washington, D.C. Here's a webcam view.

Temperatures will not be a problem with this one. It's pretty darn cold out there, with forecast highs for BWI only in the mid-20s.

The heaviest snow from this storm is predicted for central and southern Virginia , with a nasty mix now due in the Carolinas, with a foot or more possible there. Here's AccuWeather.com on the prospects.

The snow here should get started around mid-day, but it will be a hard start. The air here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville remains very dry. The dewpoint is at 1 degree, with a relative humidity at 46 percent. (It's around 5 degrees at The Sun). We will need a lot more moisture here to start the snowmaker.

If you want a line on how close we are to the start of the snow, keep an eye on the dewpoint on The Sun's weather station at North Calvert and Centre streets, When the dewpoint begins to approach the actual temperature, you can start to watch for flakes. But remember that it's the dewpoint upstairs, where the snow has to form, that matters. It may still be drier at the surface.

UPDATE: Flakes on the WeatherDeck at 11:15 a.m. Dewpoint at the surface now 0 degrees, 44 pct rel. humidity; temp 19 degrees. Must be some much wetter air at altitude. 

Anyway, kudos to Mr. Foot and his students for being among the first to see the storm's northward trend in the models over the last 24 to 48 hours. They have been all over this shift.

And as always, once the snow gets going, feel free to post your thoughts and observations here. I will check back during the day and post them as fast as I can (between Honey-do List chores).

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